Fed cuts rates by 50bps before September 2026
- entry
- $0.34
- size
- $50
- upside
- 1.9x
Watching CPI print May 14 before entering
[ track record · live · public ]
Bet log
Every position I take on Polymarket. Entry price, size, thesis, resolution. Public, live, no edits, no hindsight.
BTC closes above $120,000 by Dec 31, 2026
- entry
- $0.62
- size
- $75
- upside
- 0.6x
Halving cycle + ETF flows thesis
A US president issues a crypto-related pardon by July 2026
- entry
- $0.28
- size
- $30
- upside
- 2.6x
Asymmetric upside, low cost to be wrong
[ how to read this ] · entry = price paid per share · size = $ at risk · upside = max return if right · all positions visible from tracking → resolved · no edits after the fact